What Does History Tell Us About Mortgage Rates? [mortgage-assumption.blogspot.com]

What Does History Tell Us About Mortgage Rates? [mortgage-assumption.blogspot.com]

Mortgage rates in the U.S. rose from a record low, breaking a seven-week streak of declines that fueled demand for home loans. US Mortgage Rates Rise for First Time in Eight Weeks

Tens of thousands of people traveled to Washington, DC to take part in the Save the Dream Program, sponsored by the Neighborhood Assistance Corporation of America, or NACA. NACA helps people facing foreclosure to get a lower rate on their mortgage or a lower interest rate. Some people traveled from across the country, calling this their last hope to save their home.

mortgage-assumption.blogspot.com Homes lost, families desperate as mortgage rates skyrocket in US

 In most financial markets history does, in fact, repeat itself.  In most industrialized stock markets history has repeated itself over and over.  Bull and bear markets seem to coincide with specific events that relate very closely to past events.  The problem with comparing this to the mortgage industry is that there are no hard facts about the distant past.  Mortgage rate survey data has only been collected since 1971 and the entire housing industry has drastically changed over the last 80 years.  

When looking at historical mortgage rates, it is quite obvious that the current long term trend is down.  During the last major recessionary period of the early 1980s mortgage rates peaked at 17.5%.  Since that time, rates have steadily declined to their current levels of today; around 4.8%. There have been upticks along the way, but the overall trend is down.

 At one point, there is going to be a bottom in mortgage rates which leads to a steady increase.  It is highly unlikely that rates will ever get close to 17.5% again, but if history repeats itself, they are going to have to increase well above today's historically low levels.

If we know history is likely to repeat itself, now might be the best time in many of our lifetimes to buy a home or refinance.  Although many Americans are in dire straights financially, this is an opportunity that cannot be passed up.  It is alluring to try to predict the exact bottom of mortgage rates, but when looking at the larger picture of mortgage rate history, now is the best time to buy.

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